Source: Jibang Consulting

According to the latest research of TrendForce Consulting, global notebook shipments in 2024 are still affected by geopolitical factors and high interest rates to suppress market momentum, overall, the replacement demand for entry-level consumption and education is a positive factor to promote the market in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year is still waiting for the economic environment to stabilize and more AI NB models to be released. Stimulate enterprise demand for high-efficiency notebook PC upgrades, is expected to ship 173.45 million units for the full year, an increase of 3.6% from 2023.

The penetration rate of AI laptops will jump from 1% in 2024 to 20% in 2025
TrendForce Consulting pointed out that AI NB new products under strict norms have been launched in the second half of this year, and the initial model price is more than $1,099 to $1,699, even in the face of the business market, it is still a high-price category, and it is difficult to expand the purchase momentum under the unstable economic background. The market penetration rate is expected to be about 1% in 2024.

However, in 2025, as AI applications improve, can handle complex tasks, provide a better user experience and improve productivity, TrendForce Consulting expects that under the rapid growth of consumer demand for smarter and more efficient terminal equipment, AI NB penetration rate will grow rapidly to 20.4%. At the same time, as more manufacturers launch laptops with AI chips and advanced features, the adoption rate of AI NB is expected to continue to climb in the next few years.

In 2025, Windows on Arm will usher in a new branch of the pen market
From the perspective of platform evolution, Windows on Arm (WoA) platform will play an important role in the future under the rapid development of AI notebook computers, and gradually erode the X86 market share. The WoA platform is based on the Arm architecture and provides higher energy efficiency and performance, making a more significant contribution to the power saving needs of mobile devices such as laptops. AI laptops with Qualcomm Snapdragon Elite and Plus chips debuted in May and run Windows 11.

In addition, MediaTek's Arm chips, developed in partnership with NVIDIA, are also expected to start taking a place in the AI notebook market in the second quarter of 2025, and equipped with Wi-Fi 7 and 5G specifications, will lead a new wave of technological innovation after 2025, TrendForce Consulting estimates. Arm architecture chip market penetration is expected to quickly exceed 20% in 2025.